The biggest mistake in trading isn’t picking the wrong stock.
It’s trading the right stock in the wrong environment.
If you don't understand this, you will lose money.
The market is not one thing.
It moves through different phases, or regimes.
Your strategy has to change with the regime.
If it doesn't, you will get run over.
I simplify the environment into three basic regimes.
First is the Risk-On regime.
This is the easy money environment.
Liquidity is abundant, buyers are aggressive, and dips are shallow. Breakouts work. Momentum works.
When risk is being rewarded like this, you press your edge. You trade with size.
This is where you make the bulk of your money.
The market is paying you to be aggressive.
Second is the Transition regime.
This is where most accounts go to die. The tape gets choppy. Volatility picks up.
Yesterday’s leader is today’s loser.
Breakouts pop and then fail, trapping eager longs.
The market is not rewarding risk. It’s punishing it.
In this regime, your main job is capital preservation.
I trade smaller, take quick profits, and wait for clarity.
This isn't the time to be a hero.
It’s the time to stay out of trouble.
Third is the Risk-Off regime.
This is when fear takes over. Liquidity evaporates. Correlations go to one. Everything sells.
Forced selling and de-risking dominate the tape.
In this environment, there are only two positions: cash or short.
You don’t try to catch falling knives.
You don’t need a complicated thesis.
You just need to protect your capital.
Think about a hot growth stock.
In a Risk-On regime, you buy a breakout, and it runs for a week. The market pays you.
In a Transition regime, you buy that same breakout, and it reverses thirty minutes later, stopping you out for a loss. The
In a Risk-Off regime, that stock gaps down ten percent with the market, and there are no bids.
Same stock, three different environments, three completely different outcomes.
Your first question every morning is not "what should I buy?" It is "what regime am I in?" Your answer determines your entire