Is MSTR actually going bankrupt?

Not yet. MSTR still has a real software business, a massive bitcoin stack, and the ability to raise capital. Bankruptcy is not the base case unless bitcoin collapses significantly further and the company cannot refinance its converts. The current risk is dilution, not insolvency.

What is STRC exactly?

STRC is a preferred conversion instrument tied to MicroStrategy's bitcoin strategy. It was designed as a leveraged proxy for MSTR's bitcoin exposure at a lower price point. It carries no voting rights and no dividend. Its value is derived entirely from the conversion option into MSTR, which is now deep out of the money.

Will Saylor ever sell bitcoin?

Saylor has said publicly he will never sell. But boards make decisions, not founders. If the equity cushion compresses to the point where the company faces solvency risk, the board may override Saylor's personal preference. The market is pricing in a non-zero probability of a forced liquidation.

What level does MSTR need to hold to avoid a death spiral?

$100 was the psychological floor. $90 is the technical floor where short gamma accelerates. Below $80, the dilutive equity raise math becomes unavoidable. The stock needs to reclaim and hold $100 for a full session to signal that the selling pressure has exhausted.

Is this a buying opportunity?

Not yet. The trend is down, the macro is tightening, and the options market is pricing in more downside. The first rule of catching a falling knife is: do not catch a falling knife. Wait for a level reclaim, a trend shift, or a macro catalyst. Until then, the only trade is short or flat.

← ArticlesThe Trading Desk · Post-MortemJune 26, 2026

The Trading Desk · Post-Mortem

Is MSTR Dead? Is STRC Dead? The Brutal Truth From a Guy Who Has Buried This Trade Before

MSTR is sub-$95. STRC just printed $75 — a record low. Peter Schiff is calling the whole stack a Ponzi. The 9:30 put bomb yesterday broke something. Here is the honest post-mortem: what is actually dead, what is just dying, and what has to happen for either name to come back.

By Guy Gentile

Plate 39 — The death watch is on. But not everything in the graveyard is buried yet.

I have buried trades before. I have watched leveraged longs go from hero to zero in a single session. I have seen balance sheets that looked indestructible turn into bankruptcy filings before the closing bell. So when I get the question — is MSTR dead? Is STRC dead? — I do not answer it with a tweet. I answer it with math.

MSTR is sub-$95 for the first time since Saylor turned this company into a leveraged bitcoin ETF. STRC, the preferred conversion instrument that retail piled into because it was 'cheaper,' just printed $75 — a record low. Peter Schiff is calling the whole thing a Ponzi. The 9:30 put bomb yesterday was not just a trade. It was a vote. The market is voting that the Saylor thesis is broken. The question is whether the company is broken with it.

Here is the honest post-mortem. Not from a bitcoin hater. Not from a Saylor cultist. From a guy who has run two trading firms, seen every flavor of leverage blow up, and knows the difference between a dead stock and a dying one.

Disclaimer

This essay reflects the personal views and opinions of Guy Gentile and is published for informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, an offer or solicitation, or a research report. Markets carry risk and any positions, setups, or names discussed may change without notice. Mr. Gentile and parties affiliated with him may hold, add to, reduce, or close positions in the securities discussed at any time. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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