Micron Capex Is Going Up, Not Down — The Only Question Is Whether It's Margin-Accretive HBM or a Classic Memory Overbuild
MU's own materials say FY26 capex is now above $25B and FY27 steps up meaningfully, with over $10B more construction spend year-over-year. Near term that's not bearish — it's proof supply is tight. Medium term it becomes the bear case the moment gross margin stops expanding with it. My framework for Wednesday's print: capex up + GM guide up = bullish; capex up + GM guide flat/down = sell the news. Plus the hidden risk nobody is pricing — TrendForce already says DDR5 64GB RDIMM overtook HBM on wafer profitability in Q1 2026.






