Articles
Essays by Guy Gentile on trading, risk, resilience, technology, and what comes next. Open to the public — no passcode required.
Day Three: SPCX Options Go Live, Oil Keeps Bleeding, and the Space Basket Picks Sides
SPCX listed options debut today on Cboe into a $1.75T tape and gamma-squeeze chatter to $400. WTI rebounded to $80 after a 3.7% drop as Trump targets a Sunday signing. RKLB ran 7% on a Cantor upgrade into June 22 Nasdaq-100 entry while ASTS/LUNR/RDW kept underperforming. Here is what hit today and what the desk is doing into FOMC and triple witching.
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Trade Review: The Weekend Setup Played Out — Now the Hard Part Starts
SPCX extended to $180 on day two. WTI cracked 5% to the 200-day on the US–Iran peace deal. The space sympathy basket already split into winners and roadkill. Here is what happened to Friday's setup, and what I am watching from here.
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SpaceX Goes Public, Iran Goes to the Table: The Weekend That Re-Priced Two of the Biggest Trades on the Tape
SPCX printed the largest IPO in history and closed up 19% on day one. Over the same weekend, the US and Iran moved a draft accord to the one-yard line and crude started bleeding the Hormuz risk premium. Two of the most crowded macro trades just changed character at the same time.
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Oracle's Record AI Cloud Print and Supermicro's $7B Raise Mark the Next Phase of the AI Infrastructure Trade
Oracle just put up 93% Cloud Infrastructure growth and added $85B of backlog in a single quarter. Supermicro is raising $7B to fund $39B of AI server orders. The AI trade is no longer a hype trade — it is a buildout.
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Today's Market Setup: Bitcoin Weakness, SpaceX ETF Hype, and a Rotation Market That Wants to Fade Crowded Trades
Momentum is getting selective, speculative themes are cracking, and traders are rotating out of crowded risk trades while looking for safer relative strength. Today's tape favors discipline over excitement.
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The SpaceX IPO Book Is Already Oversubscribed — Here's What That Sets Up
The book is well oversubscribed and they are reportedly closing it Wednesday post-close. This is the setup I flagged in May — and the print is going to drag every space name on the tape with it.
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Strong Jobs, Falling Oil, and the Week That Decides the Fed Trade
Jobs were strong enough to keep the Fed on hold, but not strong enough to kill risk appetite. CPI, OPEC, WWDC, ORCL, BoC, ECB, UK GDP and China inflation all land this week — and almost every part of the soft-landing trade gets tested.
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Market Rotation Warning: Institutions Are Quietly Leaving AI and Crypto
Sector data shows institutional capital quietly leaving AI and crypto-related names while rotating into Healthcare, Financials, Real Estate, and Consumer Staples. The leadership change is showing up in the tape before the headlines.
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What Happened Yesterday: Inside the June 5 Selloff and What Comes Next
Risk assets cracked together on Friday. SPY broke its week-long shelf, every high-beta basket on my rotation model flipped to sell, and Bitcoin gave back 16% on the week. Here is how I am reading it.
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Control Is Not Receipt: Why the SEC's Disgorgement Judgment Against Me Should Not Stand
The Supreme Court's Sripetch decision did not give the SEC a blank check. Control-person liability is not personal receipt — and a $19M judgment built on that confusion should not stand.
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The SEC Quietly Deleted the Record That Proves It Walked Away From My Case
Litigation Release No. 24962 documented the SEC's decision to abandon its case against me. The page is gone from sec.gov — and only the Wayback Machine remembers.
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The Andrew Left Verdict: Market Manipulation or a Threat to Free Speech?
A jury said guilty. Wall Street should be asking a harder question — where does manipulation end and free speech begin?
Read the essay →The SEC's $31M Wake-Up Call: Why the Tide Is Turning on Disgorgement
The agency is quietly walking away from cases it spent years building. Here is what that means for everyone they have ever pursued.
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The SpaceX IPO Could Trigger a Space Stock Mania
Why SpaceX may become the next major market catalyst — and why space stocks are already starting to act like a bubble.
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What Twenty Years in Trading Taught Me About Risk, Resilience, and Reinvention
Markets punish certainty. They reward preparation. Reflections from two decades on the tape.
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